Sunnyvale's Measure B (2020)
Putting It All Together
No on B!
Summary of Arguments against Measure B
(it's all about that Mayor thing!)
(it's all about that Mayor thing!)
I will post an annotated guide to that video later.
I have added some other images and explanatory comments to the slides I presented.
If Measure B passes, Sunnyvale will get 6 districts plus a directly elected mayor.
If Measure B fails, Sunnyvale will end up with seven districts.
The path to seven districts is:
- Measure B fails,
- The Asian Law Caucus (ALC) sues,
- Judge hears the case promptly,
- Early to late May, 2020, Judge gives Sunnyvale seven districts.
- November, 2020 district elections take place
The big issue is whether there should be a mayor elected "at-large".
Given the power any mayor has, and the cost of running a city-wide election, an at-large directly-elected mayor will be the one chosen by the wealthy out-of-town developers who want a mayor favorable to development.
Link to this post (for sharing):
For an intro to the basics of the California Voting Rights Act go to:
Keeping it Simple!
One Way Street
First thing to realize about an "at-large" mayor is that it is a "one way street".
Once a directly elected mayor is part of the city charter, it will be virtually impossible to go back to council-selected mayor. What mayor will want to give up power? There will be no shortage of mayor wanna-be's eager to give the mayor ever more power so they can have it when they get to be mayor.
Can a Directly-Elected Mayor Get More Resources for Sunnyvale?
In 2011 then-mayor Melinda Hamilton wrote an op-ed pointing out that Sunnyvale got a lot more money than other cities that did have a directly elected mayor at large.
"Melinda Hamilton: Directly electing Sunnyvale’s mayor will only benefit politicians"
From the above article:
"Sunnyvale received $10.7 million in American Reinvestment and Recovery Act funding — three times what Santa Clara ($3 million) received, five times what Gilroy and Milpitas ($2.3 million each) received and seventeen times what Morgan Hill ($619,000) received. All of this without the directly elected mayor that those four cities have."
I would add that asserting an at-large mayor will get more money for Sunnyvale assumes an unbelievable lack of professionalism on the part of those allocating funds. Would VTA give Sunnyvale better bus service if it had a directly elected mayor? The idea is laughable.
Changes from Measure B?
The major changes are:
- Extend the mayor's term from 2 years to 4 years.
- Removing a mayor now requires only a single vote by a simple majority of the council. If Measure B passes, the mayor can only be removed by a recall petition. This requires a large number of signatures gathered in a limited time - very difficult to do.
- Term limits are increased from 2 terms (8 years) with a 1 term break before running again, to 3 terms (12 years) with a one-term break. (But no one can be council or mayor for more than 2 terms in a 16 year period.)
- The mayor will no longer be limited by the city council. Currently the mayor knows if they try to go too far with their powers they can be easily removed. Without that check, a lot of the powers the mayor has can be abused.
- Big question! Why did the city council majority not vote to just go to 7 districts now with deal with the at-large mayor issue after the CVRA is satisfied?
Enough Time to Go to Districts if B Fails?
Some are concerned that there won't be enough time to get district elections by November, 2020. But we have the City of Santa Clara CVRA legal case in 2018 to learn from. They had a judge impose districts within 6 weeks after their ballot measure failed (in the first week in June 2018). We can model a timeline based on that as seen below:
So assuming the ballot measure fails March 3rd, we should have new maps for districts by early May - plenty of time for people to know what district they are in if they want to run for office.
Cost of Settling with the Asian Law Caucus?
If Measure B fails on March 3rd, we most likely will be sued. In public city council session, the city attorney said that the average cost of settling ("stipulate" is the legal term) CVRA cases is about $125,000. Even if Measure B passes Sunnyvale will still need to pay the Asian Law Caucus $30,000 - the maximum the CVRA allows. For comparison, the new city hall being planned will cost $216,000,000 ($216 million).
More on this in Wikipedia here:
What will a Judge Decide?
A judge is most likely to rule in favor of 7 districts should measure B fail. Would a judge likely rule for an at-large mayor? Based on the case of City of Santa Clara, it is very, very doubtful. No guarantees, of course - after all, no one can guarantee the sun will rise tomorrow - but, that's the way to bet.
The relevant quote from the judge's decision is seen below:
Why Not an At-Large Mayor?
The problem with a directly elected mayor is that it costs so much to run an at-large election that only the wealthy or (more likely) those backed by the wealthy have any chance of running a successful campaign. The money input into city elections has grown tremendously in just the last few years.
Excerpted chart below (click image to enlarge):
We just had a ballot measure on at-large mayor in 2011!
Since the "Citizen's United" Supreme Court decision in 2010, contributions from wealthy individuals, corporations have exploded:
To run in a district is relatively easy. Dropping flyers off at 50 houses takes about an hour or so. Do that every day and in 3 months you've hit every house in your district. Good exercise - do it with a friend and save on gym memberships.
Even if you feel you need to send out mailers, with only 9,000 voters in a district, that isn't too expensive for one mailer to every voter.
Sunnyvale Ethnic Make-up?
However not every potential voter actually votes. Looking at who actually votes, you find "non-hispanic white" voters (to use the US Census term) are the majority. (See chart below - click on image to enlarge)
Actual Voters 2016
23% Asian, 58% White, 13% Hispanic
Since 58% of those who actually voted in 2016 were "non-hispanic white" we can reasonably expect that if there were 6 districts and an at-large mayor, the mayor would likely be "white" along with 3-4 other council members for a total of 4 to 5 out of 7 councilmembers.
The Asian Law Caucus wants to increase the percentage of Council members who are Asian, and for these demographic reasons are unlikely to favor a directly elected mayor, since that mayor would most likely be "white"
The demographics of Sunnyvale and possible 7 districts are discussed at:
Potential Ethics Issues of At-Large Elected Mayor
As an example of what can go wrong, this week it was revealed that San Francisco Mayor London Breed accepted several thousand dollars in gifts from an employee - whose $273,000 salary depends on Mayor Breed (the SF mayor's salary is $300,000/year).
As the SF Chronicle wrote:
"It is simply improper for a mayor to accept something of value from a department head whose $273,000-a-year position is contingent, in part, on her approval of his performance."
And in the Baltimore Sun:
"...prosecutors allege [former mayor Catherine] Pugh defrauded area businesses and nonprofit organizations with nearly $800,000 in sales of her “Healthy Holly” books to unlawfully enrich herself, promote her political career and illegally fund her campaign for mayor."
And from the Boston area:
"Fall River Mayor Jasiel Correia, who is already under indictment for wire and tax fraud, was arrested Friday for allegedly conspiring to extort more than $600,000 in bribes from four marijuana vendors." (Also employees ordered to 'kick-back' half their salary to the mayor, and lots of other fun stuff.)
If you want more examples, just search under "indicted mayors".
Effects of an At-Large Elected Mayor
We can see this in Santa Clara (which has a directly-elected at-large mayor). They sold their golf course to build more office space and retail establishments - very little housing. The 5.7 million square feet of office space will hold more than two times the number of employees of the Apple Headquarters (the "Space Ship")! There is no way in heck Santa Clara can build enough housing for 28,000 employees and their families. So the 28,000 future employees in Santa Clara will have to drive there making traffic a nightmare not only in Santa Clara but in neighboring North Sunnyvale as well.
Districts - Pluralities and Majorities
(From: https://meetingthetwain.blogspot.com/2018/11/district-elections-cvra-5.html )
The map above has the following ethnic make-up:
For now, this is...