Saturday, June 17, 2017

The Future of Energy in 22 Charts

Perma-link: http://meetingthetwain.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-future-of-energy-in-20-charts.html


Making Progress!

I offer the following 'uplifting' view of renewable energy as a counterpoint to the somewhat discouraging view of Sea Level Rise in "Bye-Bye Shanghai" at:
http://meetingthetwain.blogspot.com/2017/04/bye-bye-shanghai.html


US Wind + Solar Hit 10% of total Production!


Iowa, Kansas, and Oooooklahoma lead US with 25% or more electricity from Renewable Energy (RE)!  If Iowa can hit 37% wind power so can Texas, Kansas, and many others.


Both charts from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31632

Utility Solar growing fast! 

First because it was mandated, but now 'cuz it's cheap!


Above from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31072#tab1

California's solar takes a big bite out of mid-day energy imports lowering the cost of electricity below zero!  "...almost 40% of net grid power produced during the hours of 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m"


More electricity storage will smooth out the early evening peak usage and lower prices at that time.

Above from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30692

US wind more than doubles! 


... net electricity generation in US in 5 years!  Now 5% of electricity generation.


Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31032

Wind passes hydro-power!  

Note the incredible rate of growth of wind power!  From about 8,000 Mega Watts to over 80,000 MW in about 11 years.  Now = 5% of total electricity.  If wind does that again, it will be 50% by 2026.



As many have noted, wind power fluctuates a lot during the year, but so does hydro, and so does demand from Winter to Summer.  And if you compare the wind generation chart above with the solar generation plot earlier, you note that wind is lowest (Summer) at the time when Solar is highest and vice versa.  Wind and solar complement each other well.

Above from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30212

First time ever US GHGs from transport are now more than GHGs from electric power generation!  Because coal is being replaced by natural gas which generates about 50% the GHG emissions of coal.


Where is the "good wind" in the US?  The map below shows the best wind (dark blue, red, and purple) is in the Great Plains, the Great Lakes, and in the waters off both the North-East Coast and the entire West Coast.  The Great Lakes alone could power the entire Mid-West.

Coal is declining fast! 


The transport sector is not yet feeling the impact of electric vehicles.  It will soon.
(Distillate Fuel means diesel oil for trucking and home heating.)


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29612

Coal close to 1908 levels!  Transport and Natural gas are next to go.


Incredible growth of Solar Power!





But solar represents barely over 1% of total world electricity production. We can't be complacent.  The easy ones go fast.  Resistance grows stronger.  Efforts must be increased to continue the march of progress.

Above chart and table from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

Hyuuge Potential in US!

The little red empty circle on the lower right is what we use now in the US.

From:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-sargent/100-percent-renewable-energy_b_9567486.html


The End of Oil Begins in 2022!

"The Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones.  The oil age won't end because we run out of oil"  
Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi oil minister

So if transport is now about as big a problem for GHG emissions as power generation, when will that significantly decline?  It should show up around 2022 - maybe a year or two earlier or later.  That is when the cost of electric vehicles will equal the cost of internal combustion vehicles.






A Bloomberg New Energy article (whence came the last 3 charts) addresses many concerns about the possibility of electric vehicles (EVs) and find that there are no serious limits.  The projected growth of EVs would use only about 1% of the known reserves of Lithium, and about 4% of the world's reserves of Cobalt.  More here:  https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

The most "authoritative" predictions of the growth of green energy by "very serious people" have been ludicrously pessimistic.  Below we see the real annual increase in Solar Panels (PV = Photo Voltaic) vs. the International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook predictions.



Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come!


Monday, June 5, 2017

Food Scrap Separation

Summary:

A lot of discussion and emails over the Sunnyvale City Food Scraps Recycling program.  Below are some of my own thoughts followed by a message from the City Manager with links to the studies done and the previous council meetings and relevant documentation.  As far as I know there is no penalty for ignoring the food scrap program at this time but we will all need to change bins to the new duplex forms.

Sunnyvale Food-Cycle web site: https://sunnyvale.ca.gov/property/recycling/scrap.htm

For more info you can ask any question about this topic (or any other) at Sunnyvale "Contact-us" website: https://sunnyvale.dynamics365portals.us/contact-us/ and you should get an answer within 3 working days.


My Thoughts:

Some have said they generate very little in the way of food scraps and have asked if they can opt out and keep their old garbage bin.  In a word: No.  You don't have to put anything in the food scrap part of the duplex bin we will all be getting but you can't keep your old bin.

Having two types of garbage bins would be a logistical nightmare with two sets of garbage trucks cruising around - one of them picking up 2 out of 3 bins and the other picking up the other 1 out of 3. We'd need 16 garbage trucks instead of 8, and twice the number of people driving.  Click on images below to enlarge:



Mountain View has a nice video and diagram of how split bin trucks work.
http://www.mountainview.gov/depts/pw/recycling/garbage/residents/carts/default.asp

My family of four generates a very small amount of food waste per week - 5 banana peels, 12 egg shells, 1/2 cup of coffee grounds - so if it seems a lot of trouble for very little, I sympathize.  However, most people generate a lot more.  I intend to go with food scrap recycling as intended even though we have very few food scraps.  We may take up composting instead. 


Coincidentally, New York City is just now implementing a food scraps recycling program as well, but they are recycling food into compost as San Francisco has been doing since 2009.  Composting has many positive environmental benefits and is discussed here:
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/06/composting-vs-methane-capture-climate-smackdown/

More info on NYC's new composting program here:

I asked the interim city manager about including food waste with yard waste as other cities do.  He told me the nearest plant that can handle both together is too far away and would cost too much in shipping costs.  The current food-recycle plan approximately breaks even.

The company responsible for the method of food recycling has a web site here:
https://www.forktofeed.com/

A video of the processing of the food scraps into pig food pellets is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=322&v=qlIOqCPgt7s

The pigs fed this will apparently not be used for human consumption but whatever pigs are used for in non-food ways.

An alternative view on compost and another option of anaerobic digestion and using captured methane as a fuel source is given here: http://appliedmythology.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-shocking-carbon-footprint-of-compost.html

Some have complained about the feeding of waste food to animals as unhealthy.  The food is sterilized and compressed into pellets so the food is probably healthier than the normal "scraps" they might get.  There is more about it here in the FAQ:
http://sunnyvale.ca.gov/Departments/EnvironmentalServices/Garbage,RecyclingandWasteReduction/RecyclingServices/SingleFamily/FoodCycle.aspx

If you were thinking of becoming a vegetarian, the following article might move you in that direction:  What we now feed animals:  http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/12/cow-feed-chicken-poop-candy-sawdust



From Mayor Hendricks via NextDoor:


-------------  note from Mayor Hendricks on NextDoor -------------

I am including a link to the meeting minutes from last year where this was voted on. I am also including the phone number to City Staff that could answer your questions. City Staff Call 408-730-7262 https://sunnyvaleca.legistar.com/Calendar.aspx https://sunnyvale.ca.gov/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?blobid=23667

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Here is the text of the city staff's reply to a message Mayor Hendricks received:

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Thank you for contacting the City regarding your question on food scraps recycling. In response to your message to Mayor Hendricks, here is how food scraps link to greenhouse gas generation--When disposed of in a landfill, food is decomposed by anaerobic bacteria that produce methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, as their waste product. Just as we humans exhale CO2, these bacteria exhale methane. Even if most of the gas is captured and converted to a usable form of energy--electricity or vehicle fuel--burning it produces carbon dioxide, also a greenhouse gas. Food scraps are by far the largest remaining item Sunnyvale residents are disposing in their garbage carts. Food scraps make up 33 percent of the garbage collected from Sunnyvale single-family residences (no other single component is higher than 6.5 percent). The City currently sends 8,000 tons of residential food scraps to Kirby Canyon Landfill in San Jose each year, at considerable ratepayer expense. Using the split cart/split truck method (same as the City does with curbside recycling) allows Specialty to collect a second material in the same truck visit as garbage, so no additional fuel is consumed for collection. Garbage is hauled to Kirby Canyon Landfill in a “big rig” that makes a 54-mile round trip. In contrast, the food scraps are processed just a few miles away in Santa Clara, and are sent there from the SMaRT Station in a condensed, pre-processed condition. Use of the food scraps as an ingredient in hog feed replaces corn and soy that would otherwise be grown on farms, with the associated fuel use, fertilizer and pesticide impacts of farming. So, yes, in many ways, the program will return real environmental benefits, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The USEPA ranks feeding food to animals just below feeding “hungry humans” and higher than industrial and compost uses. EPA’s Food Recovery Hierarchy can be viewed at www.epa.gov/sustainable-management-food/food-recovery-hierarchy .

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------------------------- begin text 2 from staff -------------------

In response to your message to Mayor Hendricks, here is how food scraps link to greenhouse gas generation--When disposed of in a landfill, food is decomposed by anaerobic bacteria that produce methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, as their waste product. Just as we humans exhale CO2, these bacteria exhale methane. As you note, the Sunnyvale Landfill, which stopped receiving waste 24 years ago, is still producing useable methane, although the quantity has declined substantially. The Wikipedia entry for Newby Island Landfill is out of date, however—Air District records indicate that Newby Island has been flaring all of its collected gas for several years. But even if most of the gas in a landfill is captured and converted to a usable form of energy--electricity or vehicle fuel--burning it produces carbon dioxide, also a greenhouse gas. To put this in scale, food scraps are by far the largest remaining item Sunnyvale residents are disposing in their garbage carts. Food scraps make up 33 percent of the garbage collected from Sunnyvale single-family residences (no other single component is higher than 6.5 percent). The City currently sends 8,000 tons of residential food scraps to Kirby Canyon Landfill in San Jose each year, at considerable ratepayer expense. Using the split cart/split truck method (same as the City does with curbside recycling) allows Specialty to collect a second material in the same truck visit as garbage, so no additional fuel is consumed for collection and collection costs are minimized. Garbage is hauled to Kirby Canyon Landfill in a “big rig” that makes a 54-mile round trip. In contrast, the food scraps are processed just a few miles away in Santa Clara, and are sent there from the SMaRT Station in a condensed, pre-processed condition. The end product is shipped to markets in a dehydrated form that minimizes fuel use in shipping. Use of the food scraps as an ingredient in hog feed replaces corn and soy that would otherwise be grown on farms, with the associated fuel use, fertilizer and pesticide impacts of farming. So in many ways, the program will return real environmental benefits, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions. USEPA research has led to it ranking “Feed animals” just below “Feed hungry people” and higher than industrial and compost uses. EPA’s Food Recovery Hierarchy and related information can be viewed at www.epa.gov/sustainable-management-food/food-recovery-hierarchy . If you wish to take a deep dive into the science on food scraps and greenhouse gases, I recommend the California Air Resources Board (CARB) resources on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants at www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm . CARB’s scientists are very firm on the GHG benefits is diverting organics from disposal. Separate collection of commercial organics is now required by law (we collected 273 tons of food from Sunnyvale sources last month) and we expect a state mandate on residential organics in the near future.
---------------

From NextDoor Posters:



----------------- begin excerpt from NextDoor post --------------

To achieve a 75 percent goal of recycling by 2020, each Californian must reduce/recycle/compost an equivalent of 8 pounds per day and dispose no more than 2.7 pounds/person/day (25 percent). These are very informative links if you have time to read through: http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/Publications/Documents/1538/20151538.pdf https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/animal_health/Garbage_Feeding.html http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/recycle/commercial/organics/FAQ.html So processed kitchen scraps (probably by sterilization to avoid transfer of swine disease) is considered safe. Feeding kitchen scraps to pigs is not an uncommon practice. CA Is following this approach to truly call it recycling. Managing huge composting piles of rotting food may not have been the best option. Split cans were probably chosen because Sunnyvale didn't want to burden us with 4 cans (garbage, kitchen scraps, recycling non organics and garden waste).

----------------- end NextDoor post --------------

Nice video of how successful SF has become to achieving zero waste by composting what they can: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg3OA1s8-SI
----------------- end NextDoor post --------------


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From the City Manager:

---------------- begin included text from City Manager ------------

Staff will be screening the emails to Council and responding on the City’s behalf when appropriate. Our practice is to respond to emails that seek more information. Emails that simply express an opinion (for or against) are for your information and staff does not typically respond. Councilmembers will be copied on all staff responses to emails directed to the Council Answer Point.

Program History

The City Council has taken several actions on this program, as listed below:

In December 2008, Council approved the Zero Waste Policy (RTC 08-358, Council Policy 3.2.4).

On April 23, 2013, Council adopted the Zero Waste diversion goal of 75% by 2020, among other actions.

To assure market outlets for both the commercial and residential food scraps collection programs, on January 5, 2016, Council approved multi-year contracts with facilities that would accept and recycle the materials collected by those programs. (RTC 15-1075)

On September 20, 2016, Council reviewed the results of the pilot program conducted in 2015 and approved Citywide implementation of the residential split-cart/split-truck program. (RTC 16-0844)

About the Program

The primary reason the City is targeting food scraps relates to the fact that, when disposed in a landfill, food is decomposed by anaerobic bacteria that produce methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Whether it escapes directly from the landfill into the atmosphere or is converted to carbon dioxide when burned in a flare or power generation process, creation of this methane adds carbon to the atmosphere and contributes to climate change.

The City has set Zero Waste goals tied to Policy 3.2.4. The goal currently is to divert 75% of generated waste from disposal by the year 2020. The most recent official state measure of Sunnyvale diversion was 65% in 2015. The Zero Waste Strategic Plan identifies food scraps as by far the largest remaining item Sunnyvale residents are disposing in their garbage carts. A waste characterization conducted for the City by Cascadia Consulting Group found that food scraps made up 33% of the garbage collected from single-family residences. No other single component was higher than 6.5%. The City is already providing food scraps collection service to a growing number of businesses, schools, etc. as it implements the AB 1826 mandate for commercial organics separation.

The 500+ home pilot program conducted in 2016 was effective in gaining high levels of resident participation (73%) and capture of available food scraps (62%). Based on this success, Council approved a Citywide rollout of food scraps service, which is now scheduled to begin in September 2017.  This first phase will provide the new service to single-family homes, duplexes, tri-plexes and mobile homes. (The start of service to apartments (4+ units) that use garbage cart service and the approximately 300 commercial garbage cart customers will be done after the single-family service is up and running.) Based on the pilot results, staff anticipates that at full implementation to the new service will increase single-family diversion by about 4,000 tons per year.

The City and Specialty uses a split cart/split truck system to collect recyclable paper and containers in a single container. Using the same split cart/split truck technology to pick up garbage and food scraps with a single truck allows the City to separately collect the food scraps without increasing the number of trucks and carts in use. This keeps the cost of providing food scraps collection at a modest level and does not increase wear and tear on streets from collection truck traffic.

To keep down the cost of the pilot program, it used retired recycling carts with a 50/50 split. Staff knew, going in, that 50/50 was not the garbage/food ratio for a permanent service, but using carts in hand saved time and money while allowing a good test of resident acceptance of this new behavior. Following the pilot, the cart and truck vendors worked with Specialty to test prototype cart dimensions and came up with cart dimensions that made the garbage portions of the three new cart designs as large as possible without allowing garbage to contaminate the food compartment of the truck. It is worth noting that the City of San Jose is also testing split cart food collection in a pilot area of approximately 6,000 homes.

Residents will continue to use their current black garbage carts until their service route is converted to the new service. Rollout will be at a measured pace to allow staff the time to answer questions about how to use the new service, troubleshoot issues in the field, etc. The pilot showed that separating food from other garbage is a big, sometimes deeply personal change for some residents that can require a good deal of communication.

Current Status
Based on the approved program, equipment orders are on schedule. Specialty Solid Waste and Recycling, the City’s franchised hauler, has placed orders for the split-body trucks and split carts needed to implement the new program. Six of the eight truck chassis (seven route trucks plus one spare) have been delivered to the vendor that installs the truck bodies, fuel tanks, etc. The other two chassis are being assembled and are expected to arrive any day. Cart lids and dividers are currently being produced by the manufacturer with production of the cart bodies scheduled to begin June 2.

Please continue to share any input that you receive from our residents.  It is important for us to track the patterns/trends in the input to inform services, potential program changes, or any additional policy action that we may need to advance to the City Council.  Please let me know if you have any questions.
--------------------------  end text from City Manager -------------