Manhattan, NYC
New York City is the city Americans think about when they compare city life with suburban or rural life.
And, when people advocate for high-density living, public transit, and against suburban "sprawl" they usually use NYC as their model, for better or worse.
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| Manhattan Subway |
And, when they think of NYC, they are usually thinking of Manhattan - one of the five boroughs that make up NYC. The borough of Manhattan (New York County) is 24 square (land) miles of tall buildings that is the original New York City (the other four boroughs were added over time until 1898).
Those advocating for density often cite NYC (Manhattan really) as the model to be emulated. Much of what they think about NYC isn't true, particularly commuting. Lets look at the numbers.
Commute Flows
Summary:
Manhattan, with only 24 square miles of NYC's 305 sq. miles, is the job center for the NYC metro area. With over 2.3 million jobs and only 734,000 resident workers, Manhattan has more than 4.5 jobs for every resident worker. Nearly 80% (77.8%) of those who work in Manhattan commute in from other areas.
One would think that nearly all residents could find a job they like within an easy commute by walking, bus, or biking. But, in fact, nearly 30% (29.7%) of those who live in Manhattan (one of the most expensive places in North America) commute out of it to work in places which are almost always cheaper to live in than Manhattan.
Looking at the changes over the 16 years from 2002 to 2018, we see an increase in commuters. There is an increase in both the number and percentage of those who live in Manhattan commuting out. Not only that, they are commuting from Manhattan further and further out. It is a slow, steady increase.
Nonetheless, as of 2018, only 15% of Manhattan residents commute more than 10 miles from home, although that is slowly but steadily increasing.
Commute Flows:
From the US Census Tool "OnTheMap" we have the commute flows of Manhattan in the first image below. This shows that 1.8M workers commuted into Manhattan, while 217,911 living in Manhattan commuted out, and 515,641 of those living in Manhattan worked there.
Figure 1 - Commute Flows 2018
(click to enlarge)
In Figure 2, below, we have the commute flows of Manhattan in 2002, 16 years earlier. This shows that 1.4M workers commuted into Manhattan, while 146,013 living in Manhattan commuted out, and 436,580 of those living in Manhattan worked there.
Figure 2 - Commute Flows 2002
(click to enlarge)
Let us compare this with 2002 - 16 years earlier - and see what changed over time.
Below is the data from 2002. Key points are that during those 16 years from 2002 to 2018, the number of jobs in Manhattan has increased by 512,404 (28.3%) while the number of those living in Manhattan increased by 150,959. The number living in Manhattan and also working there increased only by 79,061 (18.1%). Over the same period, the number of those living in Manhattan and commuting out increased by 71,898 (49.2%). In other words nearly half of the increase in population of workers living in Manhattan during this period commuted out. This resulted in an increase in the percentage of those living in Manhattan and commuting out from 25% to 30%.
Paradoxically, the addition of workers living in the job center resulted in a larger percentage commuting out of Manhattan - from 25% in 2002 to 30% in 2018. We see this in figure 3 below:
Figure 3. Commute flows - 2018 vs 2002
(click to enlarge)
Commute Distance and Direction:
In Figure 4 we see the changes from 2002 to 2018 in where and how far workers residing in Manhattan commute. In that 16 year period, those commuting more than 10 miles to work increased by 40,000 - from 77,000 (12.1%of resident workers) to 107,000 (14.5% of residents), an increase of 39%.
Figure 4: Manhattan Residents
Commuting Distance & Direction
(click to enlarge)
In Figure 5, below, we see the changes from 2002 to 2018 in how far workers commuting into Manhattan travel. In that 16 year period, those commuting more than 10 miles to work increased by 162,000 - from 698,000 (39%of non-resident workers) to 860,000 (37% of non-residents). The percentage decreased but the sheer number increased.
Figure 5: Manhattan Non-Residents
Commuting INTO Manhattan - Distance & Direction
(click to enlarge)
Figure 6: 10-24 Mile Commutes of Manhattan Residents
Shown in Purple
(click to enlarge)
Remarkably, workers are commuting from the most expensive major county in the US to much cheaper suburban areas, usually considered "bedroom communities".
Congestion and Time Lost to Commuting
The result of this density and concentration of jobs and housing has been some of the worst congestion in the world.
Those arguing that high density results in less commuting need to deal with the reality that the densest county in the US has seen a significant increase both in the number of commuters, and in their miles traveled to work.
The reality is that nearly 4 out of 5 of those who work in Manhattan commute from outside - often the suburbs or one of the more suburban parts of NYC such as Staten Island. New York commutes take the longest time in the US.
Figure 7 - Commute Time
(click to enlarge)
Fortunately, NYC has an excellent (and expensive) public transit system. Still congestion is worse than almost all other cities in the entire world. The following chart from the Economist shows that in time lost to congestion, NYC is second only to LA, and tied with Moscow. In terms of cost of congestion per driver, NYC is the absolute worst in the world.
Figure 8 - Commute Time Lost to Congestion
Figure 8 - Commute Time Lost to Congestion
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| From the "Economist" - 2018. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/28/the-hidden-cost-of-congestion |
Conclusion:
Increased density does not result in better commuting. It simply concentrates the congestion, and distributes the concomitant pollution to the suburbs.
